Will White House Let North Korea Save Face?

An interesting Associated Press story yesterday said, “North Korean leader Kim Jong Il expressed regret about his country's nuclear test to a Chinese delegation and said Pyongyang would return to international nuclear talks if Washington backs off a campaign to financially isolate the country, a South Korean newspaper reported Friday.” Kim was quoted in the mass-circulation Chosun Ilbo as telling a Chinese envoy, “If the U.S. makes a concession to some degree, we will also make a concession to some degree, whether it be bilateral talks or six-party talks." The Chinese newspaper also said that Kim told the Chinese delegation that he is “sorry about the nuclear test.” Before anyone jumps to the conclusion that the empty threats of George W. Bush were effective, it should be pointed out that China is planning to place an embargo on oil exported to North Korea. Close to 90% of North Korea’s oil comes from China. An oil embargo is far more terrifying to the North Koreans than vague threats from the Bush administration about “grave consequences”. This morning, the New York Times reported that, “China is prepared to step up pressure on North Korea in coming weeks by reducing oil shipments, among other measures, if the country refuses to return to negotiations or conducts more nuclear tests, Chinese government advisers and scholars who have discussed the matter with the leadership say. If Beijing does take a tougher line on its neighbor and longtime ally, the action is likely to bolster its relationship with the United States. Washington has urged Chinese leaders to use all the tools at their disposal to put additional pressure on Kim Jong-il, the North Korean leader.” Will the US allow North Korea to back down with dignity? If the Bush administration had agreed to negotiate with North Korea in the past rather than maintaining a stubborn intransigent no-talk stance, it is doubtful that events would have escalated to the point where both sides were threatening nuclear war. But now North Korea has blinked. The NYT says Chinese leaders believe Mr. Kim might not negotiate a way out of the impasse unless he had no other choice. Right. North Korea doesn’t have any other choice because North Korea needs China. But the United States also needs China, both as an ally and because China OWNS the United States. As of May 2005, the US owed China over $650 billion in debt and that figure was expected to reach $1 trillion in two years. As the NYT says, “experts argue that as long as the Bush administration kept its focus on a diplomatic solution (re North Korea), China would work to maintain solidarity with the United States.” But now that the moment has come to step back and let negotiation and diplomacy solve the North Korea problem, what will the belligerent, swaggering, limp-dick, overcompensating Bush administration do? It’s anyone’s guess.